2016 Economic Forecast As It Relates To The Vancouver Real Estate Market

 

 

 

 

I just attended the company’s 2016 Sales Kickoff meeting and heard the yearly economic presentation by Bryan Yu from Central 1 Credit Union.  

 

I’ve attached the pdf for your convenience in the link above, but I’ll summarize the main points from his presentation and from his talk below:

– China economy still weak and slowly recovering (~6% growth)

– Euro economy around 1% growth

– US labour market at 5% unemployment (down from close to 10% in 2011)

– Oil prices low due to too much supply

– Cost to produce NEW Oil for Canada, around $70/barrel

– Canada’s interest rate – no anticipated increase in forecast until at least mid 2017

– BC economy much better than other provinces

– BC labour market incredibly strong

– Increasing # of housing starts in the past few years, but demand is STILL more than supply, developers frantically developing to quench high demand

– Based on economic fundamentals, no bubble in sight

– Year over Year MLS HPI Benchmark Price going up 13 – 28%

– Vancouver Vacancy Rates for Condos at ~0.9%

– Real Estate works in cycles, so there will be Housing Correction in the market eventually, but it’ll likely have to be a recession and will likely be in the 10 – 15% range (Historic:  20% drop during 9/11, 11% drop during 2008 financial crisis)

– Millennials still want what their baby boomer parents had, ie live in a house

– City’s plans are to increase densification and detached housing stock decreasing rapidly, increase multifamily zoning

 

My personal takeaways:

– bidding wars are common now even amongst condos, and by the time a market correction happens, prices will have gone up so much that a market correction won’t help in terms of affordability, 

Example:  when houses are at $1M, having a 10 – 15% housing correction after houses go up to $2M doesn’t really help a majority of buyers

 

My recommendations for buyers:

Housing prices are increasing, faster rather than slower, unfortunately, it is much harder for buyers than it is for sellers.  

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The Biblical Principle I Copied From Jeremy Lin To Compete In Real Estate

 

 

Who are you working for?  

 

What drives you?  

 

What vision or mission statement do you live by?

 

When I watched a video on Jeremy Lin’s youtube channel, I made up my mind on what I would be working for.  The video, titled “Jeremy Lin – Episode 1: A Day in the Life” shows Jeremy Lin waking up at 6:30am and working out and playing basketball all day to develop his skills.  

 

At night, he spends time attending a talent show as a guest judge and having fun.  

At the end of the video clip, the bible verse shows up, “Whatever you do, work as if you are working for the Lord” – Colossians 3:23

I strongly related to the bible verse as a fellow Christian and it made me rethink what I was working for.  To me, it’s not about the money, it’s not about the flexibility, it’s not about the fame…

It’s all about working to be as best as I can be for my God.  I’m not saying the money, flexibility, financial freedom, fancy material things are not important.  Those are nice and important but they do not form the foundation of why I do what I do.  

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3 Essential Ways to Save on Moving Costs

To avoid additional stress in the midst of your relocation, here are some money saving tips to help your move.

Below are 3 essential ways to save on moving cost:

Packing
Boxes are the building blocks of moving, which is why many moving companies charge exorbitant prices for them. Buying boxes is simply unnecessary when there are so many ways to get them for free:

• Bring empty boxes from your office or workplace; printer-paper boxes are strong and large enough for most items.
• Ask friends who have recently moved or post a request on your social networks.
• Check Freecycle and Craigslist’s Free section or take a look around your neighborhood on recycling and garbage day. You never know who else has just moved and is getting rid of their used boxes.
• Ask at your local liquor store; boxes strong enough to hold glass bottles of rum or vodka can certainly handle your knickknacks.
• Check outside behind mid-sized stores. “We like to cruise the back alleys of Ross or Marshall’s—we find perfectly sized boxes,” says military wife and mom Michele Rook, whose family moves frequently. Source: Lifehacker

 

Trucks and Storage

If you choose to move yourself, you will likely need to rent a truck.

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Hands-On Locksmith Class Coming Soon!

Hands-On Locksmith Class February 1-4, 2016 – Monday to Thursday (9am-4pm) in Surrey British Columbia. Go to Mr. Locksmith for further info.

Other dates

March 7-10, 2016 – Monday to Thursday (9am-4pm) in Surrey British Columbia

May 16-19, 2016 – Monday to Thursday (9am-4pm) in Surrey British Columbia

September 5-8, 2016 – Monday to Thursday (9am-4pm) in Surrey British Columbia

Note: Other Cities TBA

Real hands-on locksmithing class  designed to teach engineering or maintenance employees for small or large facilities (School, Hospital, Corrections, Policing, etc.) and is a good start for beginners to help you become a locksmith or start your own locksmith business.

In this training you will:

• Cut over a hundred keys on key duplication machines as well as computerized machines
• Rekey locks
• Shim
• Trouble shoot
• Pick locks (Learn my Special Method to pick locks)
• Take apart (and put back together) locks (deadbolts and key in knobs).
• Lock-outs, broken keys and picking locks.
• Design a mini Master key system and master key their locks.

The Mr. Locksmith Locksmithing Course includes all supplies, lock picks, tools and material needed to take the course with.

https://youtu.be/uqm378eagfw

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Make your Fridays in February…fabulous! #thefirstyear

What’s that? Am I writing something in ADVANCE?? Or is it that I couldn’t sleep and decided that the 4am hour just might could be a productive one? I’ll never tell!

There is a voxer group of my PLN peeps that have genuinely become friends. We voxed pretty much every day for a good two years before we’ve kind of drifted into random/occasional voxes…and me so much more so than them. One of the greatest take away from that group was the idea of “Fabulous Fridays in February”, from the awesome Melinda Miller. Knowing that February can potentially be a dreary long month, she peps it up with fun activities each week…just a lil’something to look forward too. Each year I’ve added, adjusted, adapted to the campus I’m at to help being some of this fabulous along with me! Plus, you know I love a good theme!!

Now, I know I post a lot of “culture” building posts…please know for every one of these I post, there is a PLC meeting, a 504 meeting, or some kind of PD convo that is also taking place. There are walk-throughs, there are coaching comments,  and there are deep conversations. All the roles and responsibilities of a school principal are important. I just also happen to feel that a positive school culture is imperative. School culture is the heart of improvement and growth.

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School culture is the heart of improvement and growth.
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It is the deliberate decision by the leaders of the campus to create a positive school culture that enables the other areas (effective, intentional instruction for student success for example) to also achieve noteworthy outcomes.  Notice, I said leaders, not just the principal.

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I think teacher leaders are just as, if not more, important than a principal.
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 They have a power amongst their peers that is hard for an administrator to replicate.

Now, that being said, back to the fun stuff. February is a long month. No holidays immediately in sight, the Christmas break has worn off, and typically, the spring testing has started to rear its ugly head. I want  my teachers to WANT to be at school.

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I want them to look forward to being with our Wolves, and to know that I value what they do for…
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Creative little celebrations don’t take much money, just some foresight to plan ahead. You can recruit PTA moms, involved moms, local churches, local businesses, team leaders, office staff…anyone to help you lighten the load. Something as simple as a thank you note can make a world of difference to a teacher who is tired. I have some special Wednesday incentives as well that I will be handing out for various things, which will be new for me this year that I’ve gotten from a new Plano principal, Mrs. Taylor. I’ve attached those below my fabulous Canva picture below! (If you haven’t started using Canva to rock your world yet, get to it!!)

Are you doing Fab Fridays? Or Marvelous Mondays? Terrific Tuesday? Tweet me your great ideas! Here is my 2014 version, and my 2015 version as well!

 

 

Stay fab,

Amber

 

 

This is cross posted at www.amberteamann.com.

 

 

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3 Things You Should Know About Fluoride

Fluoride can provide several benefits when it comes to orthodontic problems. There are a few important things you should know about fluoride, such as: the benefits of fluoride, fluoride treatments and use of fluoride with children. Below are 3 things you should know about fluoride:   Benefits of Fluoride Before teeth break through the gums, […]

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Be Quiet…

So about a month ago during our two week holiday break, I found myself floating down a river on a tube with nothing around me but the sights and sounds of the Amazon jungle, and the peacefulness and beauty of it all hit me like a fist to the jaw. I spent about an hour or so just listening to the sounds of the world around me, and looking closely at the colours that were exploding out from the river banks. I guess it was around half way through my ride when I was struck by how long it had been since I had actually slowed down enough to tune out, and to just be quiet. No whatsapp pings, no emails to check, no social media sites luring me to update or comment on, no meetings or conversations to be had, and no decisions to make…my mind just kind of went blank and I sat there, drifting along the river, letting the beauty of the moment wash over me.

 

        Thinking back and reflecting on that experience has made me realize how important it is to take some time each week, or each day for that matter, to just be quiet. Our lives are so busy, and they speed us by so quickly that it’s easy to get caught up in it all and never come up for air…all of a sudden the days are over and the weeks are gone and life becomes all about getting stuff done, and preparing for what’s coming next, and if we’re not careful life can get so…automatic.

        It’s easy to equate the idea of “being busy” with success, and to trick ourselves into thinking that slowing down and switching off for awhile is just being lazy. I don’t know how or when it happened but I sometimes find myself feeling guilty if I sit down for an hour and take a break…it sounds crazy I know but being busy or feeling rushed can easily become the norm and the routine, and if we don’t make a conscious effort to be still once in awhile, we never get a chance to reflect and to recharge and to dream and to just…be.

        This distracted and fast paced approach to life can easily bleed into how we interact with each other as well, and our interactions can become these quick, drive-by encounters that never go blow the surface. Think about the conversations that you have with your colleagues, or your friends, or your family…are you really listening to what’s being said? I don’t know how many times I see people in the middle of a conversation texting, or checking their email or updating Facebook or scrolling through their twitter feed. We’re so used to being “connected” that we can easily become disconnected to what’s really important…our relationships with each other. I found myself the other day sending an email to a colleague who was less than a 30 second walk from where I was standing, and that’s just not good enough.

        I have made a commitment to myself recently to find some time throughout the day to slow down and to be quiet, and I want to challenge you to do the same. I am also going to make a better effort to use face to face conversation as my first priority when communicating with someone, instead of the easier and faster way that has started to drive my days like texting or emailing or using WhatsApp…finally, and most importantly I would suggest, I am going to focus on really engaging in my conversations with people and truly listening to what is being said. I will listen with the intent to understand, not with the intent to reply!

        I loved that slow, meandering ride down the river and that experience snapped something back into place for me. I’m off now to sit down outside in the sun and to do nothing for awhile…and that’s okay. I’ll listen to the sound of the world buzzing around me, and I’ll soak up all the joy while watching my kids playing in the backyard. Life is a beautiful thing if we slow down enough to enjoy it. Have a wonderful week everyone and remember to be great for our students and good to each other.

Quote of the Week…

Most people do not listen with the intent to understand; they listen with the intent to reply

– Stephen R. Covey

 

Related TED Talks –

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=saXfavo1OQo

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Interesting Articles – 

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